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Delivered exact finite-sample p-values without asymptotic bias; confirmed that 6-week employment gains across all interventions were statistically insignificant (p = 0.296 for cash, p = 0.690 for info, p = 0.388 for nudge), while validating 2-month cash employment gains for Syrian refugees (p = 0.017).
Generated exact finite-sample p-values controlling for time-varying allocation history without relying on asymptotic normality, verifying that short-term 6-week employment differences across all treatment arms had p-values well above conventional significance thresholds (p > 0.12).
Bounded the worst-case standard error of estimated average treatment effects at $\sqrt{2\lambda} = 0.05$ (equivalent to 80% power for detecting effect sizes of 0.124), resulting in an actual empirical standard error bound of 0.016 in the trial.
Calculates wave-by-wave net return by summing expected participant welfare net of costs (weighted by treatment assignment shares $(1-\gamma)\hat{p}_{t}^{dx} + \gamma/k$) and the marginal decrease in treatment effect estimator variance. The experiment continues if and only if expected net return is greater than zero.
The surrogacy condition held statistically for 2-month employment predicting 4-month employment (Wald test p = 0.575 for Syrians, p = 0.527 for Jordanians) [20]. Targeting 2-month employment in counterfactual simulations doubled the employment gains compared to a standard RCT (13.4% vs 12.4%), whereas targeting noisy 6-week employment yielded zero adaptive gains [20, 21].
The surrogacy condition held for 2-month employment outcomes across subgroups. Counterfactual simulations demonstrated that adaptively targeting 2-month employment outcomes using the Tempered Thompson Algorithm achieved an average employment rate of 13.4%, doubling the employment gain produced by a conventional static RCT (12.4%).
At gamma = 0.2, the minimum allocation probability for any of the 4 treatment arms is bounded below at 5% [4, 6, 7]. In counterfactual simulations using 2-month employment outcomes, the algorithm doubled the employment gains compared to a standard randomized controlled trial [11, 12].