Tag
indirect_inference
3 findings
Labour & employmentEquilibrium Search Modeling via Indirect InferenceA full rollout ($\tau = 1.0$) decreases overall social welfare by 0.13% and increases aggregate government spending due to high program costs (2,122 DKK per worker) and market congestion. While microeconometric methods wrongly estimate a 4,094 DKK net gain per participant, structural modeling proves welfare is maximized at 20% participation and government expenditure is minimized at 30% participation.Expert TheoryMethods & evidenceIndirect Inference Structural EstimationThe structural parameters matched the reduced-form empirical moments (treatment exit rate, control exit rate, regional comparison exit rate, and vacancy response curves), validating structural policy simulation counterfactuals.Expert TheoryLabour & employmentWelfare Reversal in Large-Scale Policy RolloutWhile a naive microeconometric evaluation calculates a false positive net return of 4,094 DKK (~550 EUR) per participant, structural simulation proves social welfare is maximized at only 20% treatment intensity and drops by 0.13% under full (100%) rollout, while government UI program expenditures are minimized at 30% intensity.Expert Theory