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The optimal targeted policy (Delta_2) generated a 1.7 percentage point employment gain over control (a 35% relative increase, 95% credible set [0.001, 0.034]), whereas the optimal non-targeted policy (Delta_3) produced only a 0.6 percentage point gain (95% credible set [-0.015, 0.027]).
Contrast $\Delta_1 = 0.002$ (95% CS: [0.000, 0.004]), showing negligible in-sample adaptive gain due to muted 6-week treatment effects. Contrast $\Delta_2 = 0.017$ (95% CS: [0.001, 0.034]), demonstrating a 35% gain in employment for the optimal targeted policy over control. Contrast $\Delta_3 = 0.006$ (95% CS: [-0.015, 0.027]), showing half the gain for an un-targeted policy.