Predictable Lean-Season Liquidity Shortfalls

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In Simple Words

Like a bear facing a predictable winter where berries disappear for months, casual laborers know the agricultural off-season is coming, but lack of savings tools or steady jobs leaves them with empty pockets, forcing them into high-interest debt and acute mental strain every single year.

Research question

Predictable seasonal fluctuations in agricultural labor generate recurring liquidity crunches during lean months, leaving casual workers with low earnings and high baseline anxiety despite anticipating the lean period.

Participants

N = 408 male piece-rate manufacturing workers, Odisha, India.

Study Design

Survey and observational tracking during the lean agricultural season (March–June) measuring off-farm casual employment rates, baseline debt, and subjective financial worry.

Results

Casual laborers secured wage employment on average only 1.9 days per week during the lean season, with 86% reporting being worried or very worried about finances, 71% holding outstanding debt, and 66% unable to access Rs. 1,000 for emergencies.

Takeaway

Align local public employment schemes or informal credit lines with predictable lean-season calendars to smooth income dips and prevent severe liquidity crunches.

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Plain-English glossary

Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.

Baseline

The starting measurements in a study. Researchers use these to compare what participants were like at the start with what happens later.

ExampleBefore a training programme starts, researchers measure workers’ earnings. That first measurement is the baseline.

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