Probationary Period Trial Match Validation
RCTClinical Trial
In labor markets where permanent contracts can be terminated with low friction during initial probation periods, raw contract signing counts can overestimate true job creation if poor matches fail rapidly.
Picture this
Think of a 30-day trial period for a software subscription. Counting new trial sign-ups on day one gives an inflated picture of business growth if half the users cancel before paying; tracking who stays subscribed past the trial period measures true customer retention.
What the evidence says
Treatment increased permanent contract hires staying off the unemployment register for at least 12 months by 14% (+0.046 hires per firm, p < 0.01), exhibiting a 1-to-1 match with total permanent contract hiring gains (+0.046 hires) and proving complete match retention past the probation window.
- Who was studied
- N = 7,438 small and medium enterprise establishments in France evaluating administrative declarations across France's 1-to-3 month trial period (`période d'essai`).
- How
- Longitudinal tracking of administrative hiring declarations linked to jobseeker unemployment register status over 12 consecutive post-hire months.
What to do
Evaluate permanent contract hiring interventions using 12-month post-hire off-register retention metrics to confirm worker survival past initial probationary probation windows.
From the source
"Indeed, even a permanent contract can be terminated rapidly if there is a poor match. To account for this, we calculate the number of hires in permanent contracts and over all contract types that results in a new hire staying off the PES register for at least 12 months."
Are_Active_Labor_Market_Policies_Directed_at_Firms_Effective_Evidence.pdf