Economics (general)

110findings0stories

The findings

Administrative Social Security Data Linkage for Earnings MeasurementAdministrative linkage secured 100% verified annual earnings histories across 13 consecutive years per individual, confirming pre-lottery earnings parallel trends between nonwinners ($15,600 to $18,000) and winners ($12,000 to $14,500) while eliminating recall measurement bias.Observational Study Agnostic Machine Learning Heterogeneity Detection in Field TrialsWhile overall average treatment effects were small and statistically insignificant (-1.4 to -2.7 percentage points, p > 0.10), generic ML inference uncovered significant treatment effect gaps between the top and bottom quintiles of 20.9 percentage points for social stigma (p = 0.009) and 12.6 percentage points for salient stigma outreach (p = 0.022).RCT Asymmetric Wealth Effect of Subsidized Index ContractsOverall insurance take-up reached 42%. In non-payout villages, labor participation differences between insured and uninsured workers were statistically zero (p > 0.10, point estimate -4.6 days), whereas in payout villages, insurance payouts (Rs. 300 to Rs. 1,200) reduced labor participation by 28.5 percentage points and days worked by 15.44 days.RCT Audit-Protected Performance MeasurementUnannounced third-party auditing prevented data fabrication, yielding verified performance data showing no statistically significant difference in reported visit rates between socially connected households (friends/family) and non-connected households (p = 0.439).RCT Bayesian Downward Belief Revision of Infectious RiskA 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of village members learning their HIV results causes respondents to attribute 1.27 fewer total deaths to AIDS (p < 0.01) and 0.143 fewer relative deaths or illnesses to AIDS (p < 0.05).RCT Belief Updating Realignment from Wage TransparencyDisclosing true supervisor pay reduced the mean absolute difference between perceived supervisor pay and actual salary from 35,320 SLL in the control group to 482 SLL in the treatment group (p < 0.001), where only 30% held accurate beliefs at baseline (37% underestimated, 33% overestimated).RCT BMO Recruitment Intent Survey StratificationStratifying assignment using annual recruitment survey data ensured balanced treatment-control groups across firm size tiers (73% under 26 employees) and industry sectors (42% services, 25% commerce, 28% manufacturing/construction).RCT Childhood Non-Cognitive Skill MalleabilityTreatment led to a 0.375 standard deviation increase in belief in skill malleability in Sample A (p < 0.01) and a 0.360 standard deviation increase in Sample B (p < 0.01), accompanied by a 0.300 to 0.368 standard deviation increase in self-reported perseverance.RCT Parametric Risk Transfer as Climate Change AdaptationPredicted climate change from 2010–2039 is projected to reduce major Indian crop yields by 4.5% to 9.0%, but formal risk transfer enables farmers to maintain high-yield cash crop production despite heightened rainfall variability.Expert Theory Selective Attention and Cognitive Barriers to Experiential LearningPrior to intervention, managers failed to notice that disorganized factory floors and unmonitored defect counts directly suppressed output, despite decades of operating experience under routine operational variation.Expert Theory Compositional Selection Shift Under Zero Average Treatment EffectsProfessional stigma framing shifted applicant composition significantly, increasing the share of rich applicants by 62% (p < 0.01) and currently working applicants by 28% relative to control, despite near-zero net application growth.RCT Asymmetric Information and Lemons Market Failure in Advisory Services100% of candidate firms regularly received low-quality unsolicited sales offers, leading directors to reject market-rate consulting despite an estimated 130% one-year return on investment ($325,000 annual profit increase on a $250,000 investment).Expert Theory Contract Customization Risk and Advance Payment MetricsCustomization elevates transaction risk because secondhand resale value is near zero, prompting advance payment demands that remain uniform regardless of whether buyer and seller share an ethnicity.RCT Counterfactual Re-Randomization InferenceGenerated exact finite-sample p-values controlling for time-varying allocation history without relying on asymptotic normality, verifying that short-term 6-week employment differences across all treatment arms had p-values well above conventional significance thresholds (p > 0.12).Expert Theory Credit Frictions and Entrepreneurial Talent MisallocationFinancial constraints block low-capital individuals with superior managerial talent from starting new enterprises, suppressing industry productivity growth by choking off competitive reallocation.Observational Study Cross-Community Audit Methodology for Bias DetectionStandardized multi-community audit visits successfully isolated seller pricing differences (-12% for Marwari sellers vs. +5% for Andhra sellers) and buyer-seller match effects independently of product quality or negotiation script variations.RCT Cultivator Risk-Taking and Labor Demand VolatilityA 1 standard deviation increase in rainfall increases harvest labor demand by 3.3 days more for insured cultivators than uninsured cultivators (a 22% relative increase). A 10% increase in insured cultivators lowers drought wages by 33% at the 20th percentile of rainfall, but raises wages by 29% at the 80th percentile of rainfall.RCT Delayed Monsoon Onset Index Contract ArchitecturePayouts ranged from Rs. 300 (15-day delay) to Rs. 1,200 (25-day delay) per unit; 14–15% of the sample households experienced qualified payouts across 4 Andhra Pradesh villages during the 2011 Kharif season.RCT Double-Blind Management Scoring Methodology (BVR Framework)Baseline BVR management practice scores correlated at 0.404 (p = 0.077) with the paper's 38 binary practice index across experimental firms, successfully capturing systematic productivity differences across countries and firms.Observational Study Double Post-Lasso High-Dimensional Covariate SelectionThe automated procedure selected only 4 baseline variables out of 43 (prior vacancies, prior permanent hires, prior fixed-term hires, and sector indicators), yielding identical treatment effect point estimates (+0.047 for permanent hires) and standard errors (0.022).RCT Dual-Market Side Insurance NeutralityJoint coverage eliminates net market wage volatility relative to a no-insurance baseline, while increasing median rainfall wages by 11.7% and 80th percentile rainfall wages by 19%.RCT Ethnic Buyer Bargaining Strategy DisparitiesBuyer ethnicity significantly affected settlement outcomes: Andhra buyers paid higher final prices, Marwari buyers paid the lowest prices, and Tamil buyers received lower advance payment demands than Marwari or Andhra buyers.RCT Evaluation-Induced Gender BiasWhen subjective evaluations directly determined financial raises, male teachers received 10% higher performance ratings controlling for teacher actions and student outcomes; when evaluations carried no financial stake, no evaluation difference by gender existed.RCT Ex-Ante Input Complementarity vs. Ex-Post Harvest Labor DecouplingInsurance significantly increases the rainfall elasticity of harvest labor demand ($\beta = 0.654, t = 2.39$), but has no statistically significant effect on planting-stage labor demand ($\beta = 0.459, t = 1.41$ or $\beta = 0.191, t = 0.48$ in placebo specifications).RCT Ex-Ante Risk Distortion in Agricultural Input SelectionOffering index insurance induced cultivators to increase harvest labor demand by 0.654 days per mm/day of excess rainfall (t = 2.39), representing a 22% relative increase in labor demand sensitivity under favorable rainfall conditions.RCT College Entrance Exam Participation Graduation ProxyBecause 90% of high school graduates sit for the ICFES exam, registration served as a high-precision proxy for high school completion, revealing that vocational voucher winners were 5 to 6 percentage points (a 25% relative increase) more likely to complete secondary school than losers.RCT Expert Forecast OveroptimismLocal field staff exhibited substantial overoptimism, predicting median 6-week employment rates of 20% for cash, 10% for information, and 9% for nudge (compared to actual control/treatment rates under 5%). Senior international staff had more accurate median forecasts (7% for cash, 5% for info, 4% for nudge). Both groups correctly anticipated that cash would be the most effective intervention.RCT Frequentist Variance Bounding in Adaptive TrialsBounded the worst-case standard error of estimated average treatment effects at $\sqrt{2\lambda} = 0.05$ (equivalent to 80% power for detecting effect sizes of 0.124), resulting in an actual empirical standard error bound of 0.016 in the trial.RCT Frictional Market Survival of Inefficient FirmsIndian woven cotton fabric imports faced a 35% tariff insulating domestic producers, while firm expansion was capped by male family member availability, maintaining low average firm size and wide TFP dispersion (90th-to-10th percentile ratio of 5.0).Observational Study General Equilibrium Program Evaluation Gap in Scaled InterventionsMarketing insurance exclusively to cultivators reduces drought wages for landless laborers by 0.63 log points at the 30th percentile of rainfall, demonstrating that partial-equilibrium evaluations miss severe welfare losses among non-treated groups.RCT Goal-Setting Job-Search NudgeAt two months, the nudge increased Syrian job applications by 55% (0.648 additional applications, p = 0.016) and Jordanian job search participation by 6.5 percentage points (p = 0.030). However, impacts on actual wage employment faded by four months (+0.003 for Syrians, p = 0.449; -0.002 for Jordanians, p = 0.544).RCT Hawthorne Effect Control via Diagnostic-Only Counterfactual DesignControl plants achieved only a 12 percentage point increase in management practice adoption (versus 37.8 percentage points in treatment plants) and exhibited no significant reduction in quality defects or major productivity gains, confirming that observer presence alone did not drive performance improvements.RCT Heterogeneous Entrepreneurial TalentA small minority of high-talent entrepreneurs like "Sarah" increased profits from 90 GH¢ to 333 GH¢ (a 270% increase vs. average control increase of 109 GH¢) by adopting marketing and employee management, whereas low-talent entrepreneurs like "Jess" only grew profits from 30 GH¢ to 80 GH¢. On average, the tailors mirrored "Jess", leading to zero aggregate profit growth across treatment groups.RCT Inattention Mixture Model CorrectionInattention affects choice variance without biasing central tendencies; the inattention-corrected flow value parameter ($\tilde{z} = 0.58, s.e. = 0.04$) matches the standard logit baseline ($\tilde{z} = 0.58, s.e. = 0.04$) identically across all hour choices.RCT Community Incentive and Distance Instrumental Variable MethodThe first-stage regression predicting the proportion of village members learning HIV results yields a strong F-statistic of 23.98 without controls, with an average of 72.3% of village members learning test results (SD = 0.186).RCT Indirect Wage-Mediated Insurance ExternalitiesA 10% increase in the proportion of wage laborers offered insurance raises village wages by 24.7% in payout states. Insured laborers receiving payouts worked 15.4 fewer days and had a 28.5 percentage point lower labor market participation rate than uninsured peers.RCT Institutional Substitution via Ethnic StereotypingIn environments where formal contract enforcement is missing, traders systematically utilize ethnic group affiliation (e.g., Marwari, Tamil, Andhra) to structure pricing and risk terms.RCT Insurable Interest Exclusion and GE Welfare SpilloverMarketing insurance solely to cultivators (25.6% coverage) reduces drought wages by 0.63 log points at the 30th percentile of rainfall and 0.23 log points at median rainfall. Jointly offering insurance to both cultivators (25.6%) and laborers (31.8%) eliminates wage volatility, raising median rainfall wages by 11.7% and 80th percentile wages by 19%.RCT Jordan Compact Policy FrameworkEased administrative procedures in manufacturing, agriculture, and construction to issue up to 200,000 work permits, establishing a global model for refugee economic integration later adopted in Ethiopia.Observational Study Local Labor Market Geographic Containment AssumptionAnnual geographical relocation rates in Denmark are 1.0% among unemployed workers and 1.4% among employed workers, confirming that administrative counties function as isolated local labor markets with minimal spatial spillover leakage.Observational Study Lottery-Based Instrumental Variable Identification StrategyFirst-stage F-statistics exceed standard weak-instrument thresholds, showing that winning a lottery increases SYEP participation by over 50 percentage points, isolating clean local average treatment effects (LATE) free from selection bias.RCT Instrumental Variables Correction for Management Measurement ErrorThe IV point estimate for Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was 0.477 (p < 0.05, First-stage F-stat = 86.00) compared to an OLS estimate of 0.167, while the IV effect on quality defects was -1.694 compared to -0.558 under OLS, proving that uninstrumented estimates suffer from substantial downward attenuation bias.RCT Managerial Evaluation Accuracy GateFor managers in the most inaccurate quintile (rating error > 2 steps out of 5), subjective performance pay had no statistically significant effect on student test scores (interaction coefficient = -0.211 SD, p < 0.05).RCT Marginal Propensity to Consume Durable Goods Out of Unearned IncomeThe marginal propensity to consume out of accumulated unearned income is 1.4% for car value and 3.7% for housing value (though net housing wealth effect remains near zero due to proportionally larger mortgages).Observational Study Market Reallocation Barriers and Bad Management PersistenceIndian textile firms faced a 35% import tariff on cotton fabric, strict credit access limits, and severe managerial span-of-control constraints where firm size was driven by the supply of adult male family members (R-squared impact of 10.1%). These distortions allowed poorly managed firms (baseline management score mean of 2.60 out of 5) to survive over 20 years without exiting.RCT Dual-Mechanism Ambiguity in Marriage Market Earning SpilloversThe net empirical effect resulted in a 5.1 percentage point reduction in 3-year marriage probability (control mean 71%, p < 0.05) and a 0.73-year increase in expected age at marriage (p < 0.01), proving that natal retention/opportunity cost effects dominated groom-demand acceleration effects.RCT Master Craftsman Supervision Opportunity CostApprentices spent 2.628 hours daily under direct master supervision out of 8.170 total working hours; pooled enterprise sales (-52,922 FCFA, p = 0.25) and enterprise profits (-15,820 FCFA, p = 0.14) showed no statistically significant program impact.RCT Meritocratic Promotion Productivity BoostTransitioning to a meritocratic promotion system increased the average number of household visits provided per worker by 22% (+1.497 visits; p < 0.01) and increased average visit length by 15% without compromising service quality or household targeting.RCT Monotonic Selection Bounds AdjustmentUnconditional reading test score differences of 2.06 points increased to an upper bound estimate of 4.36 points (0.33 to 0.66 standard deviations), and math test score differences increased from 0.77 to an upper bound of 2.52 points among vocational voucher winners.RCT Myopic Stopping Rules for Adaptive Field ExperimentsCalculates wave-by-wave net return by summing expected participant welfare net of costs (weighted by treatment assignment shares $(1-\gamma)\hat{p}_{t}^{dx} + \gamma/k$) and the marginal decrease in treatment effect estimator variance. The experiment continues if and only if expected net return is greater than zero.RCT Negative Peer-Composition EffectAverage peer baseline quality exerts a statistically significant negative effect on intensive proposal quality ($\beta = -0.424, p < 0.05$ in full sample; $\beta = -0.350, p < 0.10$ in M0 completers). The share of peers with prior business experience also displays a strong negative effect on intensive quality ($\beta = -1.539, p < 0.01$ in full sample; $\beta = -1.600, p < 0.01$ in M0 completers).RCT Neighborhood Quality Neutrality of Unrestricted VouchersVoucher usage produced no statistically significant changes in total address changes (0.119 difference, p > 0.05), census tract poverty rates (-0.009), collective efficacy scores (-0.000), or violent crime arrest rates (-0.047 per 1,000 residents).RCT Non-Applicant Selection Bias in Active Labor Market EvaluationsControl application rate was 43% in Experiment 1 and job fair attendance was 5.9% in Experiment 2, establishing that recruitment messaging alters who enters the sample pool before program training impact evaluation occurs.RCT Non-Reallocation Resource IsolationZero observed instances of teacher or student reassignment across standards occurred because automatic promotion rules and fixed classroom counts removed principal discretion, ensuring control grades remained valid comparison groups.Observational Study One-on-One Peer MentoringFemale microentrepreneurs in Kenya paired with mentors increased short-term profits by 20%, but these profit gains completely vanished after one year when mentor stipends ended; two additional mentorship studies in Kenya and Ethiopia showed no long-term impact on firm performance.RCT Extreme Value Top-Coding Truncation ProtocolCapping administrative distributions at the 99th percentile eliminated extreme hiring outliers, ensuring linear treatment effect estimates (+0.047 vacancies, +0.046 hires) reflected representative firm behavior across the sample.RCT Overtime Intercept Constraint ExtrapolationUnconstrained logit models yield an imprecisely estimated marginal value of time of $43.10 (s.e. = 15.90) for 40 vs 45 hours, whereas imposing linear intercept constraints reduces the standard error tenfold, yielding a precise MVT of $21.89 (s.e. = 1.70).RCT Partial-Coverage Co-Payment FundingInflation reduced public voucher coverage from initial full tuition to 56% of average private school tuition by 1998, requiring low-income target families (strata 1 and 2) to make up the remaining 44% in co-payments while maintaining a 15 to 17 percentage point increase in private school enrollment.Observational Study Payment Mode Equivalence Under Unconstrained LiquidityDynamic labor supply responses over a 10-year follow-up period show statistically indistinguishable trajectory patterns between lump-sum payout recipients and monthly annuity recipients, rejecting severe present bias or binding borrowing constraints.RCT Payoff-Maximizing Task SelectionTreated students were 14.1 percentage points more likely in Sample B during Visit 1 (p < 0.01) and 9.1 to 9.6 percentage points more likely across both samples during Visit 2 (p < 0.05) to select the task difficulty that maximized expected material payoffs.RCT Perceived Contract NoiseA 1 standard deviation increase in perceived contract noise decreases teacher time worked by 13 hours and decreases student test scores by 0.20 standard deviations.RCT Personal Initiative TrainingMicroentrepreneurs in Togo who received personal initiative training increased adoption of business practices by 5.4 percentage points and boosted firm profits by 30% relative to the comparison group 2.5 years after training.RCT Personal Stigma Invariance in Behavioral InterventionsPersonal stigma messaging produced no statistically significant average treatment effect (ATE = +0.025, p > 0.10) and no statistically significant treatment effect difference between the top (+0.073) and bottom (+0.047) predicted response groups (p = 0.756).RCT Piece-Rate Financial Incentive Orthogonality to Promotion TournamentsRegression analysis showed that interaction terms between short-term piece-rate bonuses and meritocratic promotion incentives on household visit output were statistically non-significant, confirming that career advancement tournaments function independently of short-run cash incentives.RCT Placebo Validation of Information Treatment MechanismsDisclosing official supervisor salary to workers with accurate baseline beliefs produced no statistically significant change in household visits under either meritocratic (+1.308 visits; p = 0.608) or non-meritocratic (-0.968 visits; p = 0.608) promotion regimes, ruling out attention or demand artifacts.RCT Policy-Relevant Treatment Effect vs. Microeconometric BiasAt experimental intensity ($\tau = 0.3$), participants enjoyed a 5.4 percentage point higher monthly matching rate than nonparticipants (0.245 vs 0.191). However, the policy-relevant treatment effect under full rollout ($\tau = 1.0$) was only 0.3 percentage points (0.208 vs 0.205), proving standard microeconometric trials overestimate nationwide impact by over 1,700%.Observational Study Policymaker Targeting Efficiency Dilemma Under Stigma MitigationStigma alleviation pitches systematically selected applicants who were older (+2.79 years, p = 0.02 in Exp 2), richer (+0.209 SD Lasso index, p < 0.01 in Exp 1), and already working (+7.0 percentage points, p < 0.05 in Exp 1), creating a trade-off between maximizing employment returns versus equity-focused targeting.RCT Preference-Based In-Group Price DiscountingBuyers received a discounted price when randomly matched with a wholesaler from their own ethnic group, but sellers did not reduce advance payment demands for co-ethnics.RCT Managerial Overconfidence and Self-Assessment BiasPrior to consulting interventions, firm managers consistently rated their own management practices as "above average," preventing them from recognizing the need to seek or invest in external managerial improvements.Observational Study Prior Criminal Risk Heterogeneity in Youth Employment OutcomesLow-risk youth (97% of the cohort) show precisely estimated zero effects for contemporaneous crime reduction, ruling out arrest decreases greater than 0.9 per 1,000 youth. Virtually all statistically significant reductions in summer arrests and convictions are concentrated in the 3% at-risk population.RCT Private Sector Apprenticeship AlignmentPublic industrial schools funneled students into state job training agencies (SENA), whereas private commercial schools placed 85.3% of enrolled vocational students in commercial tracks with private sector office apprenticeships, contributing to an 11th-grade dropout rate of only 2.2% compared to 9.0% in public vocational schools.Observational Study Professional Stigma vs. Social Stigma Behavioral DifferentiationProfessional stigma framing decreased sign-ups by 0.032 percentage points (26% relative drop from 0.121% control baseline), while social stigma framing decreased sign-ups by 0.047 percentage points (39% relative drop). The 0.015 percentage point difference between the two treatments was statistically significant (p < 0.05).RCT Psychological Costs of Application InitiationProactive phone call initiation increased the job application rate by 600% (from 0.185% to 1.507% of matches, effect = 0.01322, p < 0.001) and increased the interview invitation rate by 550% (from 0.012% to 0.090% of matches, effect = 0.00078, p < 0.001).RCT Psychological Poverty TrapAlleviating financial strain via early wage payments increased production by 0.27 plates per hour (a 7 percent increase) and high attentiveness by 7.7 percentage points (a 17.1 percent increase), establishing that cognitive distraction from financial distress actively suppresses labor efficiency.Expert Theory Absence of Quantity-Quality Trade-Off in Performance TournamentsTransitioning to meritocratic promotions increased average visit length by 15% (from 11.99 minutes baseline) and increased routine health visits by 30% (+1.084 visits; p < 0.05) without worsening household targeting or shifting visits disproportionately toward friends and family.RCT Randomization Inference Permutation TestingPermutation testing yielded exact p-values of p = 0.024 for permanent hires of registered jobseekers and p = 0.037 for theoretical workdays created, confirming significant treatment effects independently of asymptotic distributional assumptions.RCT Regulatory and Union Evasion via Plant SplittingTreatment firms opened 0.259 more plants over 3+ years compared to the industry average of 0.120 plants, while showing no statistically significant change in employee count per plant (-1.28, SE 6.19) or loom count per plant (2.38, SE 3.24).Observational Study Risk Compensation and Protective Behavior ReductionA 10 percentage point increase in village members learning HIV test results reduces current condom use with a spouse by 38.2 percentage points (p < 0.01; coefficient -0.382) and condom use with recent partners by 38.5 percentage points (p < 0.01; coefficient -0.385), with no effect on multiple concurrent partnerships (p = 0.940).RCT Rule-of-Law Deficit and Expropriation FearDeveloping nations with weak legal enforcement display near-zero delegation of employment, capital investment, and pricing decisions compared to developed nations where plant managers independently approve up to $50,000 in capital expenditures.Observational Study Rule-of-Thumb Financial TrainingTeaching rules of thumb significantly reduced financial reporting errors among low-skilled owners and increased profits by 23.5% in Uganda and 8.1% in Ecuador.RCT Salience-Mitigation Duality in Stigma FramingPure salient stigma framing reduced job fair attendance by 12.0 percentage points among the bottom response group (p = 0.042; group difference p = 0.022). Combining salience with dispelling testimonials attenuated the negative effect to a non-significant -4.4 percentage points (p = 0.585 for group difference).RCT Salience vs. Initiation Mechanism DisambiguationSending a text message reminder produced an application increase 1/14th the size of proactive phone call initiation (p < 0.001). Free callback salience produced an effect 1/100th the size (p = 0.017), and initiating calls later in the application window reduced treatment impact (-0.072 percentage points per day, p < 0.001).RCT Self-Employment Decoupling from Liquidity ConstraintsWinning a 1M SEK windfall reduces self-employment income by 0.051 SEK per 100 SEK won (p = 0.088), representing a 7.72% reduction relative to baseline mean self-employment income (6,598 SEK), which is a larger proportional drop than wage earnings (-5.49%); self-employment participation drops by 0.139 percentage points per 1M SEK won (p = 0.491), contradicting theories that liquidity shocks promote entrepreneurial entry.RCT Separate Spheres Within-Marriage Threat Point DynamicsWinning spouses reduce pre-tax labor earnings by 0.964 SEK more per 100 SEK won than non-winning spouses (p = 0.015); because legal asset division upon divorce is equal regardless of winner identity, the disparity supports internal non-cooperative separate-spheres threat points rather than external divorce-threat bargaining models.RCT Short-Term Contract Variance DilutionFixed-term and temporary contracts of 1 week or less comprised 53% of all contract flows, generating a standard deviation of hiring 9.9 times larger than permanent contracts and obscuring overall hiring treatment effects.RCT Side-Payment Neutralization ProtocolGuaranteed pre-task bonus disbursement successfully decoupled referral task motivation from referrer incentives, isolating pure peer screening from candidate effort responses.RCT Skill Accumulation InvestmentTreated students were 14.3 percentage points more likely in Sample A and 19.1 percentage points more likely in Sample B to commit to the difficult task one week in advance (p < 0.01), leading to 8.7 to 10.7 percentage point higher success rates and 16% to 26% higher payoffs in the second visit.RCT Small-Sample Large-T Econometric Experimental DesignIntention-To-Treat (ITT) permutation tests demonstrated statistically significant reductions in quality defects (p = 0.001) and output increases (p = 0.026), proving that high-frequency weekly panel data compensates for small cross-sectional sample size.RCT Social Connection Dampening of Meritocratic Tournament IncentivesMeritocratic promotions increased household visits by 35% (+2.3 visits; p < 0.01) among health workers with no personal connection to the facility manager, compared to a non-significant +0.8 visits for socially connected workers (difference statistically significant at p < 0.01).RCT Social Network Risk-Sharing DistortionOver 35% of reported gifts and high-value loans occurred between relatives compared to only 2% between coworkers; unincentivized workers were 7 percentage points more likely to refer relatives (baseline <15%) than workers facing performance-contingent pay.RCT Stated vs. Revealed Preference Invariance in Time ValuationImplied flow value of non-work time $\tilde{z}$ estimated from real field choices ($0.58$, $s.e. = 0.04$) matches hypothetical choice estimates from the UAS panel ($0.61$, $s.e. = 0.03$) within statistical confidence intervals.RCT Statistical Surrogacy in Sequential Policy TrialsThe surrogacy condition held statistically for 2-month employment predicting 4-month employment (Wald test p = 0.575 for Syrians, p = 0.527 for Jordanians). Targeting 2-month employment in counterfactual simulations doubled the employment gains compared to a standard RCT (13.4% vs 12.4%), whereas targeting noisy 6-week employment yielded zero adaptive gains.Observational Study Information-Induced Stigma Belief IsolationStigma information significantly increased the perception that society looks down on entry-level jobs by 0.10 units on a 3-point scale (p < 0.01) and decreased agreement that family would be proud by 0.15 units on a 5-point scale (p < 0.10), while having no statistically significant effect on immediate expected salary (+57 EGP/month, p > 0.10) or 5-year expected salary (-92 EGP/month, p > 0.10).RCT Subjective Attendance MotivationSubjective performance incentives increased teacher attendance by 5.927 days present per year relative to control (p < 0.10; 3.340 days in restricted sample, p < 0.01), whereas objective incentives generated a non-statistically significant increase of 2.426 days (p = 0.570).RCT Subjective Expected Utility Decision Making Under Diagnostic UncertaintyProviding objective information via testing enables individuals to revise subjective probability distributions and re-optimize future behaviors to maximize expected utility.Expert Theory Systematic Subjective Overestimation of Endemic Disease RiskBaseline respondents reported believing an average of 11.5 acquaintances had ever died of HIV/AIDS, 2.94 had died of HIV/AIDS in the past year, and 0.96 relatives were sick or died of HIV/AIDS.Observational Study Targeted Capital Asset SpurtAt two months post-grant (Round 3), capital grant recipients spent 179.3 GH¢ more than the control group on their baseline-stated target investments (p < 0.10) and showed a net asset/savings financial flow increase of 326.2 GH¢ at Round 6 (p < 0.01). By Round 8 (two years post-baseline), new investment flows turned negative (-13.70 GH¢ for capital only, -64.92 GH¢ for combined, p > 0.10).RCT Trade Protectionism and Inefficient Firm PreservationEconomies with higher trade protectionism display a significantly wider thick tail of low-performing manufacturing firms, as high tariffs protect low-productivity producers from international competitive selection.Observational Study Tax Wedge Buffer on Total Production ValueA 100 SEK wealth windfall reduces total employer labor costs (production value) by 1.412 SEK per year (p < 0.001), but reduces net after-tax labor income by only 0.576 SEK per year (p < 0.001); taxes and social security contributions absorb 59.2% of the overall drop in economic output generated by the worker.RCT Tempered Thompson AlgorithmAt gamma = 0.2, the minimum allocation probability for any of the 4 treatment arms is bounded below at 5%. In counterfactual simulations using 2-month employment outcomes, the algorithm doubled the employment gains compared to a standard randomized controlled trial.RCT Time-Varying Psychological Application CostsWithin-jobseeker crossover treatment yields statistically indistinguishable returns between marginal and inframarginal applications (p = 0.503 for interview probability, p = 0.480 for value-weighted interviews). Application submission probability decays exponentially from notification date to deadline date.RCT Trusted Enumerator Data Collection in Vulnerable Populations6-week rapid surveys by unfamiliar enumerators showed near-zero employment impacts (0.6 percentage points for cash, p = 0.296; control mean 4.9%), whereas 2-month ESO surveys revealed 5.2 percentage point employment gains for Syrian refugees (p = 0.017; control mean 9.1%), with significant job increases occurring just below the formal minimum wage.Observational Study Upfront Unconditional Monetary Incentives in Survey Nonresponse ReductionThe upfront $10 cash incentive produced a 23% response rate compared to 16% for the conditional $50 check alone (t-statistic = 1.81, p-value = 0.08), helping raise the study's overall response rate to 46% across mailings.Observational Study Utility-Bill Stratification TargetingMandatory utility bill stratification restricted participation to poor households, resulting in 53.5% of vocational voucher applicants residing in the poorest neighborhood tier in Bogotá.Observational Study Voucher Non-Portability Identification StrategyAdministrative restrictions resulted in fewer than 20% of transferring students retaining their vouchers; consequently, 59.6% of voucher winners who applied to vocational schools remained in vocational schools 3 years later compared to only 42.6% of lottery losers.RCT Wait-List Deferred Residential MobilityApplicants postponed moves during the wait-list period and increased moves after receiving a voucher offer, resulting in a statistically insignificant total address difference (0.036 ITT, p > 0.05).RCT Weather-Shock Selection CorrectionOne additional day of rainfall during the 3-day window reduced participant return probability by 20.7 percentage points (p < 0.01, chi-squared > 12.6), providing a valid instrument that eliminated non-response selection bias without affecting indoor cognitive task scores.RCT Welfare Contrasts in Policy ChoiceContrast $\Delta_1 = 0.002$ (95% CS: [0.000, 0.004]), showing negligible in-sample adaptive gain due to muted 6-week treatment effects. Contrast $\Delta_2 = 0.017$ (95% CS: [0.001, 0.034]), demonstrating a 35% gain in employment for the optimal targeted policy over control. Contrast $\Delta_3 = 0.006$ (95% CS: [-0.015, 0.027]), showing half the gain for an un-targeted policy.RCT Welfare Stigma Neutrality in Developing EconomiesExplicit financial hardship framing caused no statistically significant change in application rates (-2.3 percentage points, SE = 0.030) or Lasso-based demographic composition relative to standard subsidized control.RCT Application Window Timing DecayEach additional day between notification and application deadline reduced the phone-call treatment effect on job application probability by 0.072 percentage points (p < 0.001).RCT