Historical Rainfall Moment Matching in Index Contract Design
Historical mean daily rainfall (4.18 mm vs 4.12 mm, t = -0.11) and historical coefficient of variation (0.868 vs 0.845, t = -0.16) were statistically indistinguishable between payout and non-payout villages, confirming that 2011 payouts were driven by exogenous weather shocks rather than baseline risk differences.