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Intensification of the policy regime increased unemployment exit rates by 20% to 40% (a 20–22% time-invariant overall increase), reducing average unemployment duration by 2.2 weeks (approximately 15%). The perceived risk of activation accounted for the job-finding increase, whereas actual program participation exhibited zero or negative direct impacts.
Job exit rates spiked significantly in the weeks leading up to mandatory participation (a "threat effect"), accounting for a substantial share of total job exits before individuals ever received actual coaching or assistance.
Empirical estimations revealed non-positive or negative exit hazard coefficients following program completion across multiple program types (e.g. vocational training post-completion coefficient -0.49 for control group members in Storstrøm).