Age-Graded Educational Return Sensitivity

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In Simple Words

Think of a multi-stage hiking trail where almost everyone easily completes the flat first mile (primary school), but half the hikers quit at the steep incline (secondary school). Adding a cable car station at the top of the mountain gives hikers on the steep slope a massive reason to keep climbing, while doing little to change the numbers on the easy flat mile where everyone was walking anyway.

Girls aged 11 to 17 in rural India

No study recruiter visits
Group used for comparison
Annual recruiter visits
5.9 percentage points more enrolled

Ages measured at three-year follow-up. This age subgroup result does not establish a statistically tested difference from younger girls.

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Research question

Labor market return shocks may affect children differently depending on their schooling stage, as early primary education often has high baseline attendance while secondary education faces severe dropout risks due to opportunity costs.

Participants

2,264 school-aged girls divided into primary (ages 6–10) and secondary/post-primary (ages 11–17) cohorts across 160 rural villages.

Study Design

Age-disaggregated RCT regression analysis of school enrollment verified directly with school attendance records.

Results

School enrollment increased by 5.9 percentage points (p < 0.05) for older girls aged 11–17 (where baseline enrollment was only 51%), compared to a statistically insignificant 3.1 percentage point gain (p = 0.23) for younger girls aged 6–10 (where baseline enrollment was already 90%).

Takeaway

Target career orientation and labor return interventions at upper-primary and adolescent students facing high structural dropout risks.

Source and citation

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Plain-English glossary

Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.

Baseline

The starting measurements in a study. Researchers use these to compare what participants were like at the start with what happens later.

ExampleBefore a training programme starts, researchers measure workers’ earnings. That first measurement is the baseline.

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Percentage points

The difference between two percentages.

ExampleA rise from 40% to 50% is 10 percentage points. Relative to the starting value, that is a 25% increase.

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Randomized controlled trial

A study that uses chance, like drawing lots, to decide who receives each option being compared. Researchers compare the groups’ outcomes to estimate the effect of those options.

ExampleA lottery assigns volunteers to a training programme or a comparison group. Researchers then compare their outcomes.

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