Age-Graded Educational Return Sensitivity
RCTClinical Trial
Labor market return shocks may affect children differently depending on their schooling stage, as early primary education often has high baseline attendance while secondary education faces severe dropout risks due to opportunity costs.
Picture this
Think of a multi-stage hiking trail where almost everyone easily completes the flat first mile (primary school), but half the hikers quit at the steep incline (secondary school). Adding a cable car station at the top of the mountain gives hikers on the steep slope a massive reason to keep climbing, while doing little to change the numbers on the easy flat mile where everyone was walking anyway.
What the evidence says
School enrollment increased by 5.9 percentage points (p < 0.05) for older girls aged 11–17 (where baseline enrollment was only 51%), compared to a statistically insignificant 3.1 percentage point gain (p = 0.23) for younger girls aged 6–10 (where baseline enrollment was already 90%).
- Who was studied
- 2,264 school-aged girls divided into primary (ages 6–10) and secondary/post-primary (ages 11–17) cohorts across 160 rural villages.
- How
- Age-disaggregated RCT regression analysis of school enrollment verified directly with school attendance records.
What to do
Target career orientation and labor return interventions at upper-primary and adolescent students facing high structural dropout risks.
From the source
"Girls 6-10 (primary school age) were 3.1 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in treatment villages, but the effect is not statistically significant... For girls 11-17, the treatment resulted in a 5.9 percentage point gain (significant at the 5% level)."
517 labor market opportunities QJE April '12.pdf