Contemporaneous Incapacitation via Program Hours Allocation
Understanding whether summer job programs reduce crime through structural displacement of idle time (incapacitation) versus persistent behavioral/human capital changes is essential for effective social policy design.
Picture this
Imagine a youth's peak hours for getting into trouble are weekday afternoons. Assigning them to a job requiring 25 structured hours per week physically occupies those peak hours, leaving insufficient time and opportunity to engage in illegal activities during the program duration.
What the evidence says
Arrest reductions occur exclusively during the months of July and August when SYEP is actively operating (23% drop in felony arrests and 17% overall reduction), with arrest rates returning to baseline levels immediately in September after the 25-hour work schedules terminate.
- Who
- N = 163,447 total applicants aged 16–21 (5,092 at-risk, 158,355 low-risk), New York City.
- How
- Comparison of monthly crime event distribution across summer treatment months (July and August, when youth work 25 hours per week for 7 weeks) versus non-summer post-treatment months using 2SLS instrumental variable lotteries.
What to do
1. Schedule youth employment program hours explicitly during historical peak crime hours (afternoon and early evening weekdays) to maximize incapacitation benefits.
From the source
"The timing of the reductions in arrests strongly suggests an incapacitation mechanism: participation decreases arrests during July and August, when SYEP is in session, but has no detectable impact on arrests in subsequent months."
The_Effects_of_Youth_Employment_Evidence_from_New_York_City_Summer.pdf