In Simple Words
Learning emotional self-control helps a driver avoid throwing a punch during road rage, but it does not remove the financial temptation to take an unattended wallet from a counter. Conflict-resolution skills alter interpersonal behavior without automatically altering economic incentives for theft.
Chicago youth who would take a summer job
- Without OSC+
- Estimated comparison outcome
- With OSC+
- Estimated 5.8 more property arrests per 100 youth
The source gives suggestive evidence of 5.8 more property-crime arrests per 100 participants over two years; this estimate is less clear than the violent-crime reduction. Two-year property estimate is uncertain. Separate one-year violent arrests fell. Effects among youth who would participate.
See source →Research question
Interventions aimed at youth behavior are often evaluated under the assumption that a single program will reduce all forms of crime uniformly. Failing to distinguish between conflict-driven violent acts and economically-motivated property crimes leads to misinterpretation of program efficacy.
Participants
OSC+ 2012–2013 cohorts in Chicago (5,216 male youth, ages 16–22, 20–47% prior arrest history).
Study Design
RCT with administrative tracking across Chicago Police Department and Illinois State Police arrest records categorized by violent, property, and nonviolent offenses over a two-year post-lottery period.
Results
OSC+ participation decreased violent crime arrests by 35% (6.4 per 100 youth), but increased property crime arrests over two years by 5.8 per 100 youth from a baseline of 12.7 (a 45% increase), while having no statistically significant effect on other nonviolent crimes.
Takeaway
Disaggregate program evaluation metrics by specific crime category to isolate distinct psychological and financial behavioral mechanisms.
Source and citation
See source →Read alongside the research
Plain-English glossary
Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.
- Randomized controlled trial
A study that uses chance, like drawing lots, to decide who receives each option being compared. Researchers compare the groups’ outcomes to estimate the effect of those options.
ExampleA lottery assigns volunteers to a training programme or a comparison group. Researchers then compare their outcomes.
GET-IT glossary · Randomized study ↗Read more about randomized controlled trial →- Statistically significant
A label used when a result passes a chosen statistical threshold, often p < 0.05. It does not show how large or useful an effect is. A result that is not statistically significant does not prove there is no effect.
ExampleA study reports p = 0.03 against a 0.05 threshold. It passes that test, but the effect could still be too small to matter.
American Statistical Association · Statement on p-values ↗Read more about statistically significant →