Statistically Assisted Programme Selection (SAPS)

In Simple Words

Think of Statistically Assisted Programme Selection like a digital navigation app for job training. Instead of a driver guessing which route is fastest based on personal habit, the app analyzes millions of past trips taken by similar drivers under similar weather conditions to show the driver which specific turn gives them the highest probability of arriving on time.

Research question

Active labour market programmes frequently generate disappointing or negative employment outcomes because public employment services fail to match unemployed jobseekers to measures that maximize individual employment probabilities. Statistically Assisted Programme Selection addresses this misallocation by providing caseworkers with econometric predictions of individual net programme impacts derived from comprehensive administrative historical datasets.

Participants

Historical estimation sample of N = 460,442 jobseekers aged 25 to 55 from Swiss administrative databases (2001–2003); field experiment evaluated N = 18,713 treatment jobseekers and N = 16,677 control jobseekers across 21 Swiss employment offices.

Study Design

Randomized Control Trial (RCT) randomized at the caseworker level (142 treatment vs. 137 control caseworkers), utilizing biweekly econometric potential outcome predictions matched with Multiple Comparison with the Best routines.

Results

Providing econometric predictions to treatment caseworkers produced zero statistically significant change in programme assignment behaviour, with short-term compliance between recommended and assigned programmes remaining identical at 12% (Definition 1) and 29–30% (Definition 2) for both treatment and control groups.

Takeaway

Calculate individual potential employment outcomes using disaggregated administrative data, and integrate statistical prediction sets into caseworker workflow interfaces alongside explicit compliance monitoring protocols.

Read alongside the research

Plain-English glossary

Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.

Randomized controlled trial

A study that uses chance, like drawing lots, to decide who receives each option being compared. Researchers compare the groups’ outcomes to estimate the effect of those options.

ExampleA lottery assigns volunteers to a training programme or a comparison group. Researchers then compare their outcomes.

GET-IT glossary · Randomized study ↗Read more about randomized controlled trial →

Statistically significant

A label used when a result passes a chosen statistical threshold, often p < 0.05. It does not show how large or useful an effect is. A result that is not statistically significant does not prove there is no effect.

ExampleA study reports p = 0.03 against a 0.05 threshold. It passes that test, but the effect could still be too small to matter.

American Statistical Association · Statement on p-values ↗Read more about statistically significant →

Related findings

• Statistical Targeting vs. Profiling Systems →Labour & employment

  Think of profiling like a hospital sorting patients solely by how sick they are, giving the most intensive care to the sickest person regardless of whether that care helps them. Targeting is like testing which specific medicine works best for each patient, ensuring people get the exact treatment that improves their health.

• Ability-Dependent Peer Screening →Labour & employment

  Imagine trying to pick the best chess player out of a crowd. Only a master chess player has the expertise to accurately assess who among their acquaintances truly plays at an elite level, whereas a beginner cannot distinguish between a decent amateur and a grandmaster.

• Ability-Heterogeneous Wage Returns →Labour & employment

  Imagine a nightclub with a strict dress code based on exam scores where high scorers enter easily without extra effort. For high-scoring individuals, additional work experience adds little value because employers already hire them based on test scores.

• Activation Program Threat Effect →Labour & employment

  Think of a mandatory weekend study hall for students behind on homework. Many students work much harder during the week to finish their assignments on time simply to avoid having to show up for the study hall in the first place.