Dual-Sided Over-Optimism in Labor Market Fundamentals
75% of firm managers overestimate the cognitive ability of tertiary-educated applicants (perceiving a tertiary Raven score premium $>4\times$ the actual difference of 5.3 vs 5.0 questions); 55% of high-school jobseekers expect permanent employment within 1 year compared to 5.8% actual observed employment.