Differential Elasticity of Felony vs. Misdemeanor Offenses
Interventions may affect serious violent/property offenses differently than minor infractions, making it necessary to disaggregate intervention elasticity across legal offense classifications.
Picture this
Think of crime levels like a pyramid where minor misbehavior is at the base and severe crimes are at the peak. Interventions providing structured work alter high-stakes decisions dramatically, chopping off the peak of serious felonies even if minor lower-level infractions at the base show smaller relative shifts.
What the evidence says
SYEP participation decreases felony arrests during the program summer by 23% (p < 0.05), whereas overall misdemeanor arrest reductions are smaller in relative magnitude (14%) and less statistically precise, indicating higher responsiveness of high-severity criminal actions to structured summer employment.
- Who
- N = 163,447 youth matched to New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services arrest records categorized by charge severity class.
- How
- Instrumental variable 2SLS estimation decomposed by offense classification (Felony Class A–E vs. Misdemeanor Class A–B).
What to do
1. Target employment programs specifically at communities facing high rates of violent and property felony offenses to capture maximum social welfare gains.
From the source
"The impact on felony arrests is larger in relative terms (a 23 percent reduction) than the impact on overall arrests (a 17 percent reduction)."
The_Effects_of_Youth_Employment_Evidence_from_New_York_City_Summer.pdf