In Simple Words
Think of a store offering a free promotional delivery service for three months. Customers flock to place orders through the service while the promoter actively calls them, but once the active calls stop, customers gradually return to using their own regular delivery methods even though the purchases they made remain permanent.
Small and medium firms in France
- No proactive agency outreach
- Reference cumulative permanent hires
- Proactive agency outreach
- Permanent-hiring gains persisted
Cumulative trial outcomes for registered jobseekers through January 2016, 16.5 months after launch. Agency-posting gains declined from May 2015; the two patterns differ.
See source →Research question
Short-term active labor market interventions often generate immediate spikes in public job agency vacancy postings, but policymakers struggle to assess whether these increases represent lasting shifts in recruitment behavior or temporary agency usage.
Participants
N = 7,438 French firms tracked across administrative records over a 16.5-month longitudinal horizon (September 15, 2014 to January 31, 2016).
Study Design
Monthly cumulative longitudinal tracking comparing treated and control firms post-intervention across Public Employment Service vacancy postings and administrative hires.
Results
While permanent contract hiring gains remained persistent through the entire 16.5-month period, treatment effects on vacancy postings with the Public Employment Service peaked during the sanctuary period (+24%, p < 0.01) and progressively decayed starting May 2015 as proactive counselor contact ceased.
Takeaway
Track post-intervention recruitment metrics over a multi-year horizon to distinguish between permanent job creation and temporary public agency posting channel substitution.