Transitory Vacancy Posting Decay
RCTReview
Short-term active labor market interventions often generate immediate spikes in public job agency vacancy postings, but policymakers struggle to assess whether these increases represent lasting shifts in recruitment behavior or temporary agency usage.
Picture this
Think of a store offering a free promotional delivery service for three months. Customers flock to place orders through the service while the promoter actively calls them, but once the active calls stop, customers gradually return to using their own regular delivery methods even though the purchases they made remain permanent.
What the evidence says
While permanent contract hiring gains remained persistent through the entire 16.5-month period, treatment effects on vacancy postings with the Public Employment Service peaked during the sanctuary period (+24%, p < 0.01) and progressively decayed starting May 2015 as proactive counselor contact ceased.
- Who was studied
- N = 7,438 French firms tracked across administrative records over a 16.5-month longitudinal horizon (September 15, 2014 to January 31, 2016).
- How
- Monthly cumulative longitudinal tracking comparing treated and control firms post-intervention across Public Employment Service vacancy postings and administrative hires.
What to do
Track post-intervention recruitment metrics over a multi-year horizon to distinguish between permanent job creation and temporary public agency posting channel substitution.
From the source
"Figure 4a shows positive and significant effects during the sanctuary period (15 Sep. - 31 Dec. 2014), but we see also they progressively decline starting May 2015... Although standard errors are large, these results indicate that treatment firms posted relatively less vacancies than control firms after the sanctuary period."
Are_Active_Labor_Market_Policies_Directed_at_Firms_Effective_Evidence.pdf