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For the lowest-predicted-earnings stratum, the job application workshop increased 4-year earnings by 50% over the control mean (p = 0.0696 for equality with the high-predicted-earnings group). This intervention reduced the earnings gap between high- and low-predicted earners from 142% down to 54%.
Local field staff exhibited substantial overoptimism, predicting median 6-week employment rates of 20% for cash, 10% for information, and 9% for nudge (compared to actual control/treatment rates under 5%). Senior international staff had more accurate median forecasts (7% for cash, 5% for info, 4% for nudge). Both groups correctly anticipated that cash would be the most effective intervention.
A microeconometric RCT evaluation calculates a 5.4 percentage point monthly job-finding advantage (0.245 vs 0.191 matching rate) at 30% treatment intensity. In contrast, the macro policy-relevant treatment effect under full 100% rollout yields only a 0.3 percentage point increase (0.208 vs 0.205 matching rate), showing micro trials overstate true policy efficacy by 18-fold.
Randomized sorting ensured baseline equivalence between groups, establishing that sectoral programs causally increased 2-year earnings by $4,500 in SEIS (18% increase, p < 0.01), 5-year earnings by $2,716 in WorkAdvance (11.5% increase, p < 0.01), and 11-year earnings by $4,616 in Project QUEST (15% increase, p < 0.01).
The optimal targeted policy (Delta_2) generated a 1.7 percentage point employment gain over control (a 35% relative increase, 95% credible set [0.001, 0.034]), whereas the optimal non-targeted policy (Delta_3) produced only a 0.6 percentage point gain (95% credible set [-0.015, 0.027]).
While a naive microeconometric evaluation calculates a false positive net return of 4,094 DKK (~550 EUR) per participant, structural simulation proves social welfare is maximized at only 20% treatment intensity and drops by 0.13% under full (100%) rollout, while government UI program expenditures are minimized at 30% intensity.