BMO Recruitment Intent Survey Stratification

In Simple Words

Think of testing a new fertilizer across farmland. If researchers sort plots based on whether farmers plan to plant crops this season before applying the fertilizer, they can accurately measure growth without confusing unplanted fields with failed crops.

Research question

Randomizing firm-level interventions across broad employer populations without accounting for baseline hiring intentions introduces noise and reduces statistical precision in measuring policy impacts.

Participants

N = 7,438 establishments drawn from approximately 400,000 French businesses surveyed annually in the BMO (Besoin en Main d'Oeuvre) platform.

Study Design

Stratified Randomized Controlled Trial using baseline BMO survey responses on 2014 hiring intentions, local agency attachment, and workforce size tiers to stratify assignment.

Results

Stratifying assignment using annual recruitment survey data ensured balanced treatment-control groups across firm size tiers (73% under 26 employees) and industry sectors (42% services, 25% commerce, 28% manufacturing/construction).

Takeaway

Incorporate annual firm recruitment intention survey data as a core stratification variable when designing randomized labor market field experiments.

Read alongside the research

Plain-English glossary

Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.

Baseline

The starting measurements in a study. Researchers use these to compare what participants were like at the start with what happens later.

ExampleBefore a training programme starts, researchers measure workers’ earnings. That first measurement is the baseline.

GET-IT glossary · Baseline characteristics ↗Read more about baseline →

Randomized controlled trial

A study that uses chance, like drawing lots, to decide who receives each option being compared. Researchers compare the groups’ outcomes to estimate the effect of those options.

ExampleA lottery assigns volunteers to a training programme or a comparison group. Researchers then compare their outcomes.

GET-IT glossary · Randomized study ↗Read more about randomized controlled trial →

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