Forced Random Search Decreasing Returns

In Simple Words

Think of browsing a menu where dishes are listed in random order rather than grouped by preference. If a waiter prompts diners to order whichever dish appears at the top of the page, diners buy items they enjoy less, leading to lower satisfaction per meal compared to when they choose their favorite options regardless of menu placement.

Research question

Standard canonical search models often assume job search is undirected (random), predicting that lowering search costs across randomly encountered vacancies maintains baseline return rates. If platform vacancy ordering forces random search, the returns to marginal applications may differ fundamentally from directed search interventions.

Participants

N = 9,255 jobseekers across 938,284 jobseeker-vacancy matches in Lahore, Pakistan (restricting to person-rounds with 2 or more matches).

Study Design

RCT randomizing the listing order of matched vacancies on call/text notifications (in 20% of matching rounds) and estimating 2SLS returns to applications induced by top-of-list placement.

Results

Listing a vacancy first increased application probability by 0.440 percentage points (p < 0.001), but marginal applications yielded an interview rate of only 2.44% (p = 0.231 relative to 0%, p = 0.077 compared to 6.29% control return), demonstrating sharply decreasing returns compared to initiation-based search (5.87%).

Takeaway

Avoid using random default sorting or top-of-list placement to drive user engagement on matching platforms, as forced random exposure induces low-yield actions with rapid return decay.

Read alongside the research

Plain-English glossary

Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.

Percentage points

The difference between two percentages.

ExampleA rise from 40% to 50% is 10 percentage points. Relative to the starting value, that is a 25% increase.

Office for National Statistics · Percentages ↗Read more about percentage points →

Randomized controlled trial

A study that uses chance, like drawing lots, to decide who receives each option being compared. Researchers compare the groups’ outcomes to estimate the effect of those options.

ExampleA lottery assigns volunteers to a training programme or a comparison group. Researchers then compare their outcomes.

GET-IT glossary · Randomized study ↗Read more about randomized controlled trial →

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