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Mandatory activation reduces job application costs from $\gamma_0 = 0.202$ to $\gamma_1 = 0.114$, but completely eliminates non-market time value $h = 0.013$ per month (equivalent to 1.3% of monthly productivity or ~2% of unemployment benefits).
Placing 1.398 formal apprentices per firm displaced only 0.318 traditional apprentices, creating a net gain of 1.080 total apprentices per firm (p < 0.0001); net job creation was bounded between 74.1% and 77.3% of formal positions placed.
Marketing insurance exclusively to cultivators reduces drought wages for landless laborers by 0.63 log points at the 30th percentile of rainfall, demonstrating that partial-equilibrium evaluations miss severe welfare losses among non-treated groups.
A 10% increase in the proportion of wage laborers offered insurance raises village wages by 24.7% in payout states [5, 9]. Insured laborers receiving payouts worked 15.4 fewer days and had a 28.5 percentage point lower labor market participation rate than uninsured peers [10, 11].
Spillover students exhibited non-significant knowledge improvements of 0.015 SD at 1 week and 0.011 SD at 6 months, and non-significant attitude changes of 0.026 SD at 1 week and 0.022 SD at 6 months compared to pure control schools.
At eight months, untreated job seekers in treated communities were 2.1 percentage points less likely to obtain long-term employment than job seekers in communities where no counseling was offered, and in highly competitive job markets, untreated peers experienced a 7.7 percentage point drop in employment relative to pure comparison areas [6, 7, 12].
Supply-side windfall ($\omega = 0.259$) and demand-side substitution ($\psi = 0.227$) were nearly equal ($\omega - \psi = 0.032$), and program scale relative to the broader labor market was under 10% (9.9% mean ratio), resulting in near-zero market tightness adjustment and validating control group spillover independence.
Participation in activation reduced non-participants' exit rate from unemployment by ~5% (p < 0.10 in proportional hazard; -2.7 percentage points probability of employment at 3 months, p < 0.05). Comparing participants directly to non-participants within the same region overstates program efficacy by ignoring this 25%+ crowding-out spillover.
Average indirect spillover effects on untreated neighbors were statistically zero across employment (-4.6 percentage points, p > 0.10) and earnings (-41.1 ETB, p > 0.10), proving that search interventions at this scale do not displace non-treated youth in integrated urban labor markets.
Research is ongoing with results forthcoming; study design tracks spillover mechanisms and the bi-directional link between mental health and social network creation [7, 8].
Longitudinal tracking of 6,000 connected peers to quantify indirect intervention spillover effects and measure how mental health influences network formation.
Participation in the activation program reduced non-participants' unemployment exit hazard rate by approximately 5% ($\gamma = -0.048$, p < 0.10 in full covariate model; $\gamma = -0.079$, p < 0.05 in South Jutland sub-sample).
While individuals offered counseling were 2.5 percentage points more likely to find long-term employment after eight months than untreated peers in the same communities, untreated peers in treated communities were 2.1 percentage points less likely to find jobs than job seekers in pure comparison communities where 0% were treated [6, 7].
Removing multi-establishment corporate branches prevented internal information spillovers, maintaining orthogonal treatment variation across 7,438 independent establishments.
Individual student randomization within schools amplified social stigmatization and generated unavoidable treatment spillovers across treatment and control arms, contributing to zero-session attendance rates of 70.0% in CBT and 97.0% in math tutoring.