In Simple Words
Think of line-skipping at a grocery store checkout line with a fixed number of open registers. Giving a VIP line-skipping pass to one shopper lets them check out faster, but pushes every non-VIP shopper back by one position in line. The entire line does not move any faster, and the total quantity of groceries purchased at the store remains completely unchanged.
Young graduate job seekers in France
- No intensive offers in area
- Group used for comparison
- No offer in a program area
- Stable employment 2.1 percentage points lower
At eight months, unoffered job seekers in program areas had a 2.1-percentage-point lower chance of long-term employment than job seekers in areas without intensive offers. Eight months; stable means jobs lasting at least six months. Offered-job-seeker group omitted; standard public help available to all.
See source →Research question
Intensive job search counseling increases placement speed for participating job seekers, but in competitive labor markets with limited open vacancies, these individual gains occur by displacing non-participating job seekers who compete for the same positions. Without measuring general equilibrium displacement, policymakers risk misinterpreting zero-sum job reallocation as net job creation.
Participants
Nearly 30,000 young, college-educated job seekers in France (two-thirds female, 67% receiving no unemployment benefits) across 235 local job market communities.
Study Design
Clustered randomized controlled trial comparing treated job seekers, untreated job seekers in treated communities, and job seekers in pure comparison communities with 0% treatment saturation over a two-year follow-up period.
Results
At eight months, untreated job seekers in treated communities were 2.1 percentage points less likely to obtain long-term employment than job seekers in communities where no counseling was offered, and in highly competitive job markets, untreated peers experienced a 7.7 percentage point drop in employment relative to pure comparison areas.
Takeaway
Evaluate local labor market vacancy constraints and competition density prior to expanding intensive counseling programs to prevent negative employment spillovers on non-participants.
Source and citation
See source →Read alongside the research
Plain-English glossary
Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.
- Follow-up
Collecting more information about participants later in a study to see what has happened to them. The term can also mean the length of time researchers keep track of them.
ExampleResearchers interview the same workers three months after a programme ends. That later interview is a follow-up.
GET-IT glossary · Follow-up ↗Read more about follow-up →- Percentage points
The difference between two percentages.
ExampleA rise from 40% to 50% is 10 percentage points. Relative to the starting value, that is a 25% increase.
Office for National Statistics · Percentages ↗Read more about percentage points →- Randomized controlled trial
A study that uses chance, like drawing lots, to decide who receives each option being compared. Researchers compare the groups’ outcomes to estimate the effect of those options.
ExampleA lottery assigns volunteers to a training programme or a comparison group. Researchers then compare their outcomes.
GET-IT glossary · Randomized study ↗Read more about randomized controlled trial →