In Simple Words
Imagine a musical chairs game where organizers want to know if giving subsidized tickets to new players adds total active players or merely pushes out un-subsidized participants. By flipping a coin to select both which players receive subsidized tickets and which chairs host subsidized players, organizers can directly observe whether new total chairs are created or existing participants are displaced.
Firms offering apprenticeship places in Cote d Ivoire
- No formal apprentice placement assigned
- Group used for comparison
- Formal apprentice placement assigned
- 1.080 more apprentice entrants per firm
During the experiment. Total formal and traditional entrants combined; some traditional entry was displaced. Double randomization was the design, not the effect.
See source →Research question
Standard single-sided field experiments measure direct individual treatment effects but fail to detect market-level displacement or substitution effects. Evaluating net job creation requires simultaneously quantifying supply-side windfall participation and demand-side crowding-out of un-subsidized positions in firms.
Participants
N = 731 informal firms (361 treatment, 370 control) offering apprenticeship positions, and 1,842 eligible youth (911 treatment, 921 control) across 7 localities in Côte d'Ivoire.
Study Design
Double-sided randomized controlled trial (double randomization) assigning treatment independently across labor market supply (youths) and demand (firms).
Results
Placing 1.398 formal apprentices per firm displaced only 0.318 traditional apprentices, creating a net gain of 1.080 total apprentices per firm (p < 0.0001); net job creation was bounded between 74.1% and 77.3% of formal positions placed.
Takeaway
Randomize program eligibility simultaneously on both the applicant supply side and firm demand side to identify substitution parameters and net macro-level employment impacts.
Source and citation
See source →Read alongside the research
Plain-English glossary
Original explanations, informed by the references below. Examples are illustrations, not data from the studies above. The research text stays unchanged.
- Randomized controlled trial
A study that uses chance, like drawing lots, to decide who receives each option being compared. Researchers compare the groups’ outcomes to estimate the effect of those options.
ExampleA lottery assigns volunteers to a training programme or a comparison group. Researchers then compare their outcomes.
GET-IT glossary · Randomized study ↗Read more about randomized controlled trial →