Tag
belief_elicitation
2 findings
Labour & employmentDual-Sided Over-Optimism in Labor Market Fundamentals75% of firm managers overestimate the cognitive ability of tertiary-educated applicants (perceiving a tertiary Raven score premium $>4\times$ the actual difference of 5.3 vs 5.0 questions); 55% of high-school jobseekers expect permanent employment within 1 year compared to 5.8% actual observed employment.Observational StudyLabour & employmentObservability Gradient in Labor Market BeliefsJobseekers' stated wage distributions closely matched prevailing firm salary data across occupational tiers, whereas jobseeker expectations of permanent employment (55% expected permanent job within 1 year vs 5.8% actual) and firm estimates of tertiary applicant cognitive test scores (overestimating tertiary ability premium by more than 4 times) exhibited massive structural biases.Observational Study