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Non-notified job seekers (Group C) experienced a sharper, more abrupt increase in the exit rate to work around day 90 compared to advance-notified job seekers (Group B), confirming theoretical predictions of anticipatory behavioral smoothing; however, advance notification yielded no statistically significant difference in unconditional 365-day re-employment probabilities (68.3% for Group B vs 69.7% for Group C).
Participation in activation reduced non-participants' exit rate from unemployment by ~5% (p < 0.10 in proportional hazard; -2.7 percentage points probability of employment at 3 months, p < 0.05). Comparing participants directly to non-participants within the same region overstates program efficacy by ignoring this 25%+ crowding-out spillover.
Short-term work experience produced a statistically non-significant effect on monthly reservation wages (IV estimate = +$124.40, p > 0.10) and no significant increase in active job search duration (IV estimate = +0.089, p > 0.10), ruling out reservation wage shifts as the mechanism driving daily wage returns.
Young job seekers in Johannesburg updated their beliefs about their abilities, redirected search efforts toward aligned sectors, and cumulatively earned 1.8 times more than program operating costs within 3.5 months.
Training test performance strongly predicted hiring by the primary recruiter (R² = 0.357, where a 1 standard deviation increase in composite test score increased hiring probability by 9.7 percentage points) [17, 18]. Receiving a higher guaranteed probabilistic outside job offer significantly increased candidate test performance during training by alleviating job-uncertainty stress [17, 18].
Job exit rates spiked significantly in the weeks leading up to mandatory participation (a "threat effect"), accounting for a substantial share of total job exits before individuals ever received actual coaching or assistance.