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Intensified active policies produced a net benefit to society of €2,000 per unemployed individual exposed to the intensive regime, driven by a 2.2-week (15%) reduction in average unemployment duration.
Treatment assignments yielded no statistically significant differences in ALMP participation days (group D mean = 0.056–0.080), meeting invitation frequencies (group D mean = 0.011–0.013), or vacancy referrals (group D mean = 0.031–0.054) across 90, 180, and 365 days (all p-values > 0.10).
For job seekers with low employability (predicted median duration exceeding 6 months), assignment to an early integration agreement (month 1 or 3) increased the 1-year re-employment probability from 45% (month 6 reference group D) to 53% (group A) and 54% (group C) (p < 0.01), representing an 8 percentage point or 18% relative increase; for high-employability job seekers, early integration agreements had no statistically significant effect (82% vs 82–83%).
Southern Jutland assigned over 80% of treatment cases to private contractors (compared to 40% for controls), resulting in lower meeting intensities (~30% weekly) but stronger threat-driven exit rate responses than Storstrøm (where public offices retained 70% of cases).
Specific active labor market programs exhibited zero positive direct impacts during participation, showing statistically significant negative lock-in effects on unemployment exit rates during program weeks and negative post-program effects across training, subsidized job, and education categories.
Public sector ALMP placements show minimal wage gains in developing economies, whereas 5 days of private/international firm work experience in urban Malawi increased average daily wages by $3.83 to $4.19 (~80% wage increase, p < 0.05).
Empirical estimations revealed non-positive or negative exit hazard coefficients following program completion across multiple program types (e.g. vocational training post-completion coefficient -0.49 for control group members in Storstrøm).