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Non-notified job seekers (Group C) experienced a sharper, more abrupt increase in the exit rate to work around day 90 compared to advance-notified job seekers (Group B), confirming theoretical predictions of anticipatory behavioral smoothing; however, advance notification yielded no statistically significant difference in unconditional 365-day re-employment probabilities (68.3% for Group B vs 69.7% for Group C).
Treatment assignments yielded no statistically significant differences in ALMP participation days (group D mean = 0.056–0.080), meeting invitation frequencies (group D mean = 0.011–0.013), or vacancy referrals (group D mean = 0.031–0.054) across 90, 180, and 365 days (all p-values > 0.10).
Among migrants with below-median baseline remittances, labeling access significantly increased the probability of remitting (+1.0 percentage point, p < 0.01), weekly remittance frequency (+0.012 transfers, p < 0.01), winsorized weekly amount (+174.94 PhP, p < 0.05), and log weekly remittance amount (+0.083, p < 0.01), while showing no statistically significant effect on high-baseline remitters [19, 20].
Statistically significant caseworker-driven treatment effect variation among low-employability clients (F-test p-value = 0.041), indicating that individual caseworker practices moderate the re-employment impact of early integration agreements.
For job seekers with low employability (predicted median duration exceeding 6 months), assignment to an early integration agreement (month 1 or 3) increased the 1-year re-employment probability from 45% (month 6 reference group D) to 53% (group A) and 54% (group C) (p < 0.01), representing an 8 percentage point or 18% relative increase; for high-employability job seekers, early integration agreements had no statistically significant effect (82% vs 82–83%).
$100-$200 cash grants to Sri Lankan microenterprises yielded a 5 percent monthly real return on capital; directed credit expansion to Indian medium-sized firms generated an annual return on loans close to 90 percent.
The probabilistic job offer assignment strongly predicts short-term employment acquisition with a first-stage F-statistic of 76.36 [12, 13]. Assigning 50%, 75%, or 100% probabilities increases job acquisition by 40.2, 56.8, and 83.7 percentage points respectively (p < 0.01) [12, 13].
Established a uniform 5-week pre-treatment baseline window per respondent, enabling precise subsample categorization between low and high pre-treatment remitters.
While individuals offered counseling were 2.5 percentage points more likely to find long-term employment after eight months than untreated peers in the same communities, untreated peers in treated communities were 2.1 percentage points less likely to find jobs than job seekers in pure comparison communities where 0% were treated [6, 7].